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In the last 10 years, Poland’s development twice exceeded the EU average (see Chart 22.1), and – according to the European Commision forecasts (see Chart 22.2) – it will keep the momentum in the next years. The economic forecasts of the EU and its member states are published by the European Commission on a quarterly basis. The most recent publication is available here. The forecasts are also published by a number other international and independent research institutes. The picture of the nearest future of Poland, which emerges from these reports, is reflected in two examples of economic forecasts: a selection of several important macroeconomic indices from the annual OECD report – Economic Outlook (see Table 22.3), and selected indices from the quarterly forecasts published by one of the most important Polish research institutes – the Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics (GIME) (see Table 22.4). Chart 22.1. | Accumulated GDP growth in EU countries in 1995-2005 (%) | | Latvia | 81.0 | | Estonia | 68.7 | | Luxemburg | 56.8 | | Lithuania | 54.9 | | Poland | 40.0 | | Slovakia | 39.2 | | Greece | 38.1 | | Slovenia | 37.4 | | Spain | 37.3 | | Hungary | 34.9 | | Finland | 33.3 | | Cyprus | 29.5 | | UK | 28.1 | | Sweden | 26.0 | | France | 23.0 | | Malta | 22.8 | | Holland | 20.5 |
| | EU average | 20.5 | | Czech Republic | 19.7 | | Belgium | 19.7 | | Austria | 17.5 | | Denmark | 17.0 | | Germany | 11.2 | | Italy | 10.4 |
Source: Based on Central Statistical Office statistics, August 2005 Chart 22.2
European Commision forecast: GDP increase (against previous year in %) in Poland | Years | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | | Poland | 3.5 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.5 | | EU average | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
Source: Based on the Economic Forecasts Spring 2007 report. The publication is available here. Table 22.3 | Forecasts for Poland according to OECD (in %) |
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | | (percentage change against previous year) | | Private consumption | 2.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | | Government consumption | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | | Total domestic demand | 2.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | | Exports of goods and services | 8.0 | 15.1 | 11.0 | 10.1 | | Imports of goods and services | 4.7 | 15.4 | 12.0 | 10.2 | | GDP at market prices | 3.6 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 |
| | (basic macroeconomic indices, in %) | | Consumer price index | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | | Unemployment rate | 17.7 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 9.7 | | General government financial balance | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.2 | -2.4 | | Current account balance | -1.7 | -2.3 | -2.6 | -2.5 |
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 2006
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/32/20213254.pdf Chart 22.4
Selected GIME forecasts (in %)
| GDP increase in Poland* | CPI | Unemployment | | 2005 | 3,3 | 1,1 | 17,6 | | 2006 | 6,1 | 1,0 | 14,9 | | 2007 | 6,0 | 2,3 | 12,1 | | 2008 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 10.5 |
*change against previous year Source: GIME, Quarterly Economic Forecasts (II quarter. 2007)
Available in Polish only:
http://www.ibngr.edu.pl/pdf/prognozy/prognozy_07_03.pdf
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